Went to a round-table breakfast about Web 2.0. Interesting discussions. Then got home from the office, to see Seth's post about how You Tube is all about people right now, but is probably going to get overrun by corporations. There's already a budding nostalgia for the good old days of Web 2.0 - before the agencies and filmmakers and professional writers take over, as lots of folks kind of assume they will.
I'm thinking it might be more like peaceful coexistence. Professionally produced stuff alongside homemade. The filter for what people want to watch won't necessarily be production value -- it'll be content. (Sometimes production value = content, but not always.) On that level, the kid next door beats Hollywood sometimes -- and sometimes Hollywood or Madison Avenue wins. Hardcore 2.0 evangelists want backyard content producers to win, simply because they're backyard producers. Big corps want big corps to win, because they're investing a lot on the bet that they will. Thing is, the people watching get to decide.
The way I see it is: content wins from now on.
Delivery cost is the equalizer. Before the web, it was too high for anyone but large organizations to have a chance. Now everyone has a chance. A chance. Not a guarantee. Just because you can type doesn't mean you can write. Just because you have a camera doesn't mean you can make a video that will be popular. But the web, now, at least, gives you a chance to try.
Make something cool for a buck, and ultimately, it's still cool.
Make something cool for 2 or 10 million, and it's still cool, too.
Applies to the web. Applies to advertising.
Make garbage, and it doesn't matter how much or little you spend.